December 12th will mark one year to the day since I returned from my 3 month European walk. A trip during which I explored Scotland, England, The Netherlands, Germany, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Italy, San Marino, The Vatican and Greece. While it has been less than a year and I have no right to complain, my feet have been itching for the open road, my eyes dying for new sights and my pallet hankering for new tastes and foods.  I still have some great content to share and post on the usual subjects before I leave, but please be advised that for the duration of the trip (12/16/08-1/1/09) I will be publishing travel journals instead of my typical blog content.

The Research

For the past month I’ve been scouring the web for deals and information.  New Zealand’s weather, current currency rate, and beauty put it high on the list. As did the climate, exchange rate and tango dancing in Argentina.   I even considered Iceland despite the 5 hours of daylight and 35 degree highs…after all how can you beat an opportunity to visit a Scandinavian country whose currency has lost nearly half of its value in the last 5 months?  A return trip to the Greek islands also received heavy consideration.  As did Costa Rica, Hawaii and Cancun.  So many Amazing destinations.  Each with its own flavor, its own mystery and its own adventure.

One of the most exciting things about travel is how your comfort level changes and grows the more you do it. As I learn more about the world at large my curiosity and hunger to explore it continues to grow.  The end result is a fairly carefree approach to where I end up.  I know that no matter where I go or what part of the world I end up in I will grow as an individual while experiencing exciting new tastes, adventures and cultures.  The beauty of that approach is it allows me to be significantly more flexible when booking my trip. To use my upcoming trip as an example; despite researching possible destinations and airfare for more than a month and a half, it wasn’t until 60 minutes before I booked my flight that I knew which country continent I was going to be traveling to.  30 minutes after that I’d narrowed the destination down to Barcelona and Madrid and shortly there after my ticket was booked.  There are few sensations like clicking “submit” and knowing that you just invested a sizable chunk of money in airfare and have committed to a new adventure. In its own way it’s every bit as exciting as a state of the art roller coaster ride and I find often leaves me with similar butterflies in my stomach.

Unfortunately, the only time I’m able to get off is between December 16th and the 4th of January.  As a result of all of the holiday travel airfare skyrockets during the period - even on international flights. As it turned out airfare to Argentina was over $500 more than a trip to Spain with airfare to New Zealand coming in at $800-$1000 more. Places like Hawaii, Cancun, and Porto Rico were cheaper, but only by about $200.  By flying out on the 16th (my earliest possible date) and being willing to fly on New Year’s Day I was able to find airfare more than $200+ dollars cheaper than had I tried to fly back on the 2nd-4th.

The Resources

I do most of my booking research through Lessno.com and Kayak.com both of which do an excellent job searching multiple carriers and returning quality results.  While both offer a flexible date search the matrix which Lessno generates is the best I’ve seen on a travel booking site and allows for a much wider date range than Kayak.  On the flip side, with registration Kayak’s daily fare monitoring e-mails can be really useful.  However, I did my actual booking through FlyCheapAbroad.com which is the same service I booked through last year.  The website looks like complete crap and left me a bit nervous, but every time I’ve used them so far they have delivered quality service and an unbeatable price.  The flight I ended up booking through them was the exact same flight that came up on Kayak but for more than $40 less.  Hopefully they won’t disappoint.  For those considering a flight to Hawaii or New Zealand I discovered that Hawaiian airlines and Air New Zealand/Qantas all run fantastic specials 1/2-2/3 of the lowest prices on Kayak and other search sites.  If you’re booking far enough in advance it always pays to double check with the carrier and see what they’re offering.

With all of the global economic issues the Dollar has been skyrocketing and while this may not be incredible for the US economy it’s every travelers dream. The US has gained over 20% against several major currencies over the last 6 months, and shows no signs of slowing down. It’s a great time to travel if you’ve been lucky enough to avoid the flood of pink slips going out.

The Destination

As mentioned above, I ended up selecting Spain as my destination.  My travel style is backpack/hostel based and takes a very play it by ear approach.  I’ve booked my ticket so I know my starting and ending destination, but that’s about the extent of it.  I’ll be booking a hostel ahead of time in Spain for my first 2 nights and another over Christmas as a precautionary step, but beyond that I’ll be playing everything by ear.  While I may end up making it over to Portugal, it’s more likely that I’ll be focusing on southern Spain.  16 Days should be just about the right amount of time to give Southern Spain a somewhat thorough going over.  Similar to the first 2 months of my trip last year I’ll be traveling on my own and I’ll use Hostelworld.com, Couchsurfing.com and Hostelbookers to find and book my accommodation.

I’m eager to re-visit Spain (I spent time there when I was 11 back in 95) and see it through an adult’s eyes and perception. I’m also thrilled to have an opportunity to explore a piece of Europe I skipped over during my last trip.   I’d love to make it over into Southern France but highly doubt I’ll even make it as far as Barcelona.

One exciting addition to the trip that I did not have with me last year is an ultra portable Flip Camera. If all goes according to plan I should have the usual travel photos as well as exciting new video to share with you all.

Have tips, suggestions or ideas on where to go/see and stay?  Please share them in the comments section below! It’s time to do a bit of wayfaring!

Audio: Victory Blog

Even now, hours after Obama’s victory was secured beyond any doubt I still find myself in shock.  You see, I cannot help but be. Though I believed ardently in Barack Obama and have the utmost faith in America, the disappointments and setbacks dealt in 00′ and 04′ left me skeptical and frustrated.  The amount of hate, intolerance, and misinformation that has been disseminated over the last year is a profoundly tragic thing. Despite those disappointments; tolerance, hope and a new crowning achievement in America’s rich and illustrious history has been accomplished.  That is a beautiful tribute to all that is good in people.

There are several points I’d like to make.

The first of which, is why I am personally thrilled to have Barack Obama as President Elect. Contrary to what you might believe, it’s not because of his Tax Policies, it’s not because of his Health Care, and it’s not because of his Race. Each of those are important, but each of those are also secondary issues for me. I want to share my own, personal, priorities in the hope of helping some of you understand why I view Obama’s win as so pivotal and healthy for America.

Technology - For me, this is one of the big issues.  I am a stalwart believer that we are on the cusp of the next major economic and industrial shift.  The modern Digital Revolution is already under way and every bit as significant as the Industrial Revolution. The principles and expected behaviors associated with the Digital Revolution explicitly explain most of our economic, social, and civil woes. As things unfold, I see countless parallels and lessons to be learned from the Industrial Revolution.  Obama repeatedly participated in open dialogue on technology and has said that he believes in and advocates net neutrality and working towards the establishment of a national broadband infrastructure befitting the worlds super power. Like the national highway system and trans American rail system before it - a national broadband infrastructure is paramount to a competitive 21st century America.

Further, Obama’s support and embrace of R&D and progressive technological platforms differentiated him from McCain in a very distinct way.  It’s also why he drew supporters like Larry Page of Google, Bill Gates of Microsoft, Guy Kawasaki and the majority of the leaders in the High Tech industry. Technology will be the vehicle that powers our economy, it will be what creates new jobs, and it will be what allows us to not only stay competitive, but to stay a step ahead of other industrialized nations.  We cannot re-industrialize to compete with China, India and Africa. The more time and energy we spend trying to do so, the more we lose our advantage and sacrifice the well being of our citizenry.  We can however, create new industry, new economies, and new market advantages.

Education - I am a firm believer in the power and necessity of education.  When your education system falters, your society falters.  There are few things on this earth more powerful than a highly educated, informed populace.  Further, you cannot lead the world without a heavy emphasis on intellectualism for any extended period of time. Our education system, cultural perception and treatment of intellectualism is atrocious.  It has been neglected, abused, and miss-managed for years.  The combination of Obama and his wife’s personal dedication to academic excellence combined with their technological awareness was a stark contrast to McCain/Palin’s outright anti-intellectual campaign claims (Planetarium Projector/Fruit Fly talking points) and far less notable academic track records.  Obama has fought for schools, science, and education for years and has even spent time as a Professor for a major university. We need a teacher and an intellectual to lead us forward and I am confident that Obama is both.  For why his stance on Technology is important, please see my other posts on educating Millennials.  Further, as an individual with a degree in Constitutional law and passion for it I believe he will be opposed to and work to counter the movement which is pushing anti-intellectualism in the form of creationist dogma.

Political Presence - Often ignored or overlooked, the reality is that the US is at the forefront of an international community.  Hours instead of weeks or months now separate the World’s Nations.  It is a global community that is far more interconnected than most of us realize.  It is also far more diverse than most Americans realize. I’ve been lucky enough to visit over 20 countries as well as the majority of the U.S. - I know how diverse this nation is, and have some idea of how incredible the diversity is in the world.

You cannot lead what you do not understand.  For that reason Obama was my choice - two fold.  On the one hand he has experienced the world, traveled it, seen it, and more importantly sought to experience, explore and understand it.  Second, he has the support of the world…he embodies what a world leader should be.  Someone of vast intelligence, cultural awareness, and international perception.  He is loyal to America and its needs, but also understands how to accomplish those needs.

Brute force and threats won’t always work.  It’s necessary, as in all things, that we talk and seek political solutions before relying on force. Even the strongest Juggernaut will eventually be brought down by enough spiderwebs. There’s a reason that most Europeans can identify US states while we have trouble locating their country. There’s also a reason that our election map was on the front page of the Guardian and a central focus of the BBC etc. - in many ways this was a world election and for all of the right reasons the world - and America won.  An Obama Presidency will, I hope, re-introduce a head of state into the White House able to operate and behave Presidentially and in a manner befit his rank and role as most powerful man in the world.

Economy - I’ll avoid going into great depth on this one as I’ve outlined a fair share of my basic world view above, as well as previously here and in my posts on the Technological Revolution.  However, in summary I honestly believe that Obama’s victory gives us the best chance at maintaining and moving back towards securing our position as the worlds dominant super power.  We truly are on the cusp of a modern economic revolution, one that will re-define global powers and balance. I honestly feel that America can and will lead the charge into the 21st century and digital age - but only if we act now and counteract the slothenly start we’ve had. Even the current economic crisis is being miss-portrayed.  It’s not an American economic crisis, it’s global in scope and the factors causing it and playing out are international in nature.  Until we realize that and respond to it correctly we will continue to fight false shadows.

Lastly, A Thank You

I want to thank you all. First and foremost, I want to thank you for putting up with and at times suffering through the deluge of links, status updates, and political points and facts I’ve posted over the last year. Those 600 or so of you on Facebook were especially good about putting up with it, responding, and reading the material.   I want to thank each and every one of you who participated, shared information, and debated with me for helping me improve my knowledge, helping motivate my research and better preparing me to share the information I had collected.

I want to especially thank those of you who contacted me privately to say, “Keep up the good work” or with gratitude for the links and information I was posting. If not for your positive feedback and words of support and encouragement I probably would have abandoned the posting of the material months ago. Above and beyond those thank yous I’m both grateful and energized at how many of you took up the cause and began re-posting the information, fact checking your peers, and energizing those around you.  Watching the ripples that we created as you picked up the call truly was an incredible thing, and one that I believe reached far more people than we will ever realize.  Obama’s victory was made possible by grass roots efforts and your actions were the backbone of those efforts.  Every time you stood up against misinformation, fact checked inaccurate claims, or deceitful ads, and strove to spread awareness of Obama’s policies, background, and character you catapulted the campaign toward victory.  We can make a difference and we have.

I’d also like to take a moment to specifically thank “J” & “S”.  Beginning with our efforts in the primaries for Obama and Ron Paul you were both phenomenal sounding boards. The energy, motivation, and drive we shared with each other pushed us to succeed.  From reaching out and helping to remind/educate and prepare 800 youth voters to constantly posting and sharing new information and resources to the time spent walking door to door encouraging people to research and then vote, I believe we made a difference.  Thank you for your drive, passion and helping me believe that one lone American, one lone individual truly can make a difference even in a nation as large and diverse as the U.S.

We have made a difference, but it’s not over.  Now the hardest part begins.  From this day forward we must remind President Obama that as a candidate of the people, he must serve as a President for the people.

I had the pleasure/opportunity to attend PodCamp AZ this weekend at the University of Advancing Technology campus in Tempe.  For those unfamiliar with it, the event is a once yearly UNconference which is re-produced all across the US in slightly different forms.  The UNconference style is focused around maximizing your experience, keeping the energy creative, and ensuring that everywhere is where they want to be, focused on what they want to be learning and encouraging everyone’s participation.

So what is it?  It’s a free new media conference dedicated to bloggers and podcasters with additional material on all things new media. From information on how to record and edit your podcast to information about what makes a startup work - it’s a wonderful synergy of creative, inspired individuals sharing information and building relationships. The two day event occurred Halloween weekend, November 1st and 2nd.

I had the pleasure of attending the following presentations:

Pamela Slim of Escape from Cubicle Nation’s: How to strike a balance between sharing information freely and making a living using New Media. I’ve had the pleasure of communicating and getting to know Pam over twitter for the past month or so.  It was wonderful to finally put a face with the name. I especially enjoyed her insights into clarifying your blog’s message and goals while working to establish a set niche.

Dan Feierabend of Love Long and Prosper’s: The Audacity of Podcasting: Tips for producing and editing your audio podcast with free software. Dan provided a fantastic crash course on Audacity.  I’ve been using the open-source software for sound and audio recording for several months, but spent almost no time what-so-ever learning it.  In an hour Dan was able to provide a ton of useful information and several fantastic resources.

Andrew Hyde, Founder of Startup Weekend’s: Bottoms Up Leadership- Why are the most effective organizations leaderless? & his Starting it up Quick- How to start a startup and not make the classic mistakes quickly.  Two wonderful sessions.  As a big fan of the Starfish and the Spider Andrews first talk on leaderless organizations was extremely interesting. The power of leaderless organizations and their inner power dynamics are fascinating.  His second piece on startups was an absolute fantastic discussion which provided me with a much better understanding of the startup environment and some excellent food for thought. Some of which will definitely help me with my duties in the M&A Industry.

Chris Pirillo of Lockergnome’s: Cultivating Community & his off the cuff discussion on new media. Chris’s discussion on how to build community was extremely interesting. He raised some new points i’d been previously unaware of and really touched on a lot of the thigns I learned while leading the Legion of Light (Gaming Guild). Great lessons. I was also extremely impressed by his spur of the moment fill-in/off the cuff discussion on New Media in general. I really enjoyed his energy and animation.

Doug Welch of Welchwrite’s: New Media Interchange. Evo Terra joined Doug for a fantastic look at the role new media can play in personal branding, new media, and our day to day lives.

Clintus McGintus of I Do It Digital’s: Video on the Net - what should you be sending through the pipes? Clintus’s presentation really highlighted the power of quick videos for me. His presentation also helped make me aware of several other powerful video sharing services which I’d previously missed and am now eager to explore.

Brian Shaler of BrianShaler.com’s: It’s the Internet. It’s Supposed to be Interactive! Brian’s presentation provided interesting insights into the future of interactive, streaming video, and how the web will continue to develop to handle the increased resource demands.

The above are just the presentations I was able to catch & spend the most time at.  For each presentation mentioned above there were 6 more simultaneously occurring.  A hearty thank you goes out to the PodCamp AZ team for setting up the event, all of the wonderful speakers, and everyone who showed up and shared their knowledge and energy.

I cannot wait to put everything I learned this weekend to work!  Time to go play!  Hope to see you all at PodCamp AZ 2009.

If you just can’t give up your TV, you don’t have to.  Many of today’s computers can be connected directly to your TV allowing you to watch streaming web-based content in your living room.  All with minimal, unnoticeable quality loss…for free.

If you’re a die-hard sports fan, just laid out a few thousand dollars for a TV, or have a slow internet connection this tip probably isn’t for you. If, on the other hand, you enjoy getting home from work/class, kicking off your shoes, and settling in to watch your favorite TV series, the news or a movie, start watching a few of your favorite episodes online.  Give it a month, and if you think you’re ok with the switch, cancel your cable.

It’s a relatively new option.  If you wanted to watch your favorite TV shows online a year ago you would have had to be fairly tech savvy, have a lot of patience, and be willing to invest a fair amount of effort and energy locating and downloading the latest and greatest episodes. Luckily for you and me these trailblazers set a precedent which major media has started to adopt in a big way. With advances in video compression and broadband streams you can now watch full screen video in high resolution…all for free.  Not only is it free, it’s on-demand.  You can pause it, load it, and stop it at will AND all the while you’re only exposed to periodic brief 30 second advertising spots instead of 15 minutes of advertising an hour.

I haven’t subscribed to cable TV in a year which has saved me nearly $600 in subscription costs (based on Cox’s pricing). I still watch Dancing with the Stars, House, Fringe, Battlestar Galactica, Lost, the John Stewart Show, Stargate Atlantis, Eureka and others on a weekly basis (when new episodes are airing).  More of a movie person? New websites like Hulu and Joost are constantly adding new movies and episodes to their already sizable collections. If that’s still not enough…a $8.99 monthly subscription to Netflix includes unlimited access to their database of more than 12,000 movies all of which can be streamed online.

Aggregators:

Hulu.com - Relatively new but by far one of the best online movie and TV episode sites around. It is backed by NBC & Newscorp.

Veoh.com - Also relatively new, but with a pretty decent selection of movies and TV episodes.

Joost.com - Just launched a new web-based flash version of their player and while still fairly limited, it is making a major push to add a lot of additional content.

YouTube.com - Has just launched a full episode/movie platform.  However, it’s still very early stage/low quality.

You can also go straight to the horses mouth:

ABC.com - Offers most if not all of their shows online.  They even offer most of them in HD.  Just select ‘Full Episodes”.

Fox.com - Not to be outdone Fox offers a wide variety - some of which is duplicated on their partner site Hulu.com

NBC.com - They’re right there with the rest of the pack.  Get your Conan, Heroes, etc. here.

SciFi.com - Far more stingy with their content, SciFi has been experimenting with streaming episodes.  Expect more from them soon.

HistoryChannel.com - Yep, they’re online too.

Discovery/TLC/Animal Planet - All three offer streaming episodes.

PBS.org - Full length episodes available.

C-Span.com - Watch it live.

Concerned about news?  All of the major news providers offer streaming video. However, instead of watching it, I’d suggest reading it. You’ll get access to a lot more newsworthy information than the 3 news stories the major news outlets repeat every 15 minutes.

One word of caution.  A number of major ISPs have begun metering bandwidth. While most of the caps far exceed what average/heavy users will be using, it is advisable that you double check that your monthly bandwidth allotment is over 20gb download a month.

The list above is assembled off the top of my head.  Have a favorite streaming episode or movie site?  Please share it in the comments and I’ll add it to the list.

*EDIT* - 11/3/2008 - Todd Spangler, Tech Editor for Multichannel News -a part of the Reed Business Network - contacted me a bit over a week ago with an interest in setting up an interview after reading this post. I agreed, and have been featured as one of the interviews in this edition’s cover story “Breaking Free”. You can view the complete article online here.

I’m thrilled to share with you that VirtualWayfarer has been selected to be included in Alltop’s Life category (life.alltop.com). What is Alltop?

We help you explore your passions by collecting stories from “all the top” sites on the web. We’ve grouped these collections — “aggregations” — into individual Alltop sites based on topics such as environment, photography, science, Muslim, celebrity gossip, military, fashion, gaming, sports, politics, automobiles, and Macintosh. At each Alltop site, we display the headlines of the latest stories from dozens of sites and blogs.

You can think of an Alltop site as a “digital magazine rack” of the Internet. To be clear, Alltop sites are starting points—they are not destinations per se. The bottom line is that we are trying to enhance your online reading by both displaying stories from the sites that you’re already visiting and helping you discover sites that you didn’t know existed. In other words, our goal is the “cessation of Internet stagnation” by providing “aggregation without aggravation.”

It is both an honor and a pleasure to be added to the Alltop lists. I encourage you all to check the site out.  It’s a fantastic resource for finding amazing sites in various web spheres.  Guy Kawasaki, Neenz, and the rest of the Alltop team deserve a lot of credit for putting together a fantastic resource.

I’ve put together this brief video which I hope you’ll take a few minutes to watch:

View it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A78MUnNCJoQ

Please do what you can, when you can, where you can. If we each do a little we can accomplish a world of difference.

Listen to this post:

Audio: On Outsourcing, The Economy and the US

If you’ve missed the economic disaster that’s gripped the world over the last few months, you’re probably capable of forgetting to breathe.  Then again, if you’ve been following the free fall of the US stock market you’ve probably stopped breathing all together.  The economy is on everyone’s mind and a popular blogging subject.  As such, I was a little hesitant to write on it.  However, I’ve yet to see anyone discuss the big picture and very few American news outlets are taking a realistic look at what’s really going on.

The Global Environment

Simply put, you can’t understand the economy until you understand recent world history. The collapse of the USSR in 1990 set off a series of dramatic changes.  With the death of the Soviet Union the US lost its major competitor and the world saw one of its largest and most powerful economies vanish.   This provided a fantastic opportunity for the US to solidify its presence on the global stage.

In 1993 the European Union was formed and began to fill the void that the USSR’s collapse had created.   By 1999 the Euro was introduced and by 2002 most of the member countries had switched to it as their exclusive currency.  As intended, the EU and its currency created a new world economic superpower able to face off with and stand side-by-side with the US dollar. Meanwhile, the widespread adoption of the internet, and decreases in the cost of shipping/phone communication and the like made it economically beneficial to outsource to places like India and China.

Russia’s collapse offered a valuable opportunity for China.  By devaluing their currency China was able to establish and maintain itself as one of the world’s greatest exporters -  fueling an industrial revolution unlike any the world had seen for over 40 years.  With a wealth of natural resources, nearly endless population, and government able to undertake massive/risky projects, China catapulted itself onto the world stage.  By the late ’90s China had truly come into its own as an economic power.

A fourth historical factor essential to an understanding of the current economic crisis is the concept of world currency. In 1945 international currencies were pegged to the US dollar which helped secure US dominance and established the dollar as the world currency.  With the collapse of the gold standard in 1971 most of the world currencies were un-pegged from the dollar. Despite this, most international transactions were still carried out in dollars due to our position as the world’s economic superpower.

The Power of Currency

As the dollar has been the world’s unofficial currency, the United States has been able to operate as the central economic node through which most international business is carried out.  This poured money into the US and helped fuel our economy. The difficult trade off is that it also provided for a strong dollar which slowly made a lot of our industry unprofitable. As a result, our exports began to drop and our imports began to rise.  A brutal and difficult transition.  These decreases were, however, balanced by the thriving tech industry in the US. Our creativity, drive and forward-reaching thought provided the internet and new technologies which we were able to export and sell while re-tooling our economy to the early stages of the next wave: The digital revolution which replaced the industrial revolution.

As our exports continued to diminish, outsourcing thrived and the debate - which had picked up steam in the early 2000s - eventually came to a head around the time of the last presidential election. Outsourcing became a dirty word, unpatriotic and an affront to the American public. The administration decided something needed to be done to bring American manufacturing jobs back to the US and by George they did it. They began a series of actions which resulted in the gradual suppression of the US dollar.  A practice which is similar to what China has done to keep the value of their currency low and exports high.  The idea was to de-value the dollar to increase the price of imported goods while creating incentives to fuel American industry.  Ironically, this has worked.  Companies like Toyota, BMW and others have opened a number of plants in the US over the last year and a half, and industry has poured back into the US. Unfortunately,  not as fast as necessary. There are a few catches.

1. Our standard of life has been based on living in a post-industrial nation. Our consumption rates, wages, etc. are all vastly different than those of the factory worker who fueled America’s 2nd industrial revolution and exponentially different than those of  the Indian and Chinese workers fueling their country’s current industrial revolutions.
2. Technology and automation have drastically changed the way manufacturing and assembly jobs are executed, streamlining the process and reducing the demand for manpower.

Unhappily, both of these factors pale in comparison to the real catch. Our role in the global economy.  Unlike China, Japan, India, Mexico or any other foreign nation, the US is not truly an independent currency.  As the de-facto world currency, the US dollar is the central quay to which all of the world’s other currencies are tied.  When we began artificially deflating our currency we began destabilizing the world economy. Instead of offering a quay that the world economies could tie to, we quickly became a lead weight pulling them down.  We can’t have it both ways. We can’t be the world’s economic super power/global currency of choice AND at the same time be de-valuing our dollar to drive up exports.  This process began destabilizing the world economies and has, in my opinion, resulted in a lot of the credit and economic issues we’re currently facing.  It also helps explain why the US is suffering, but stock markets around the world are in equally - if not worse - shape.

The Stock Market & Housing

The common perception and discussion within the US paints the current stock market turmoil and economic trouble as being largely limited to/caused by the US. While it’s obviously hitting us hard and in many ways started with US, it’s not only a US  problem.  Further, the political dialogue has attempted to imply that the difficulties essentially stem from legislation established to put poor people in houses.  Poor people who are now defaulting on their loans and going into foreclosure. While this is, in part, true, it’s a small portion/side effect of the real issue.  It’s not the somewhat limited cross section of lower income Americans who were able to realize the American dream by purchasing a home that created the housing bubble.

In reality it is the fault of middle and upper class Americans who took out home equity loans and ARM loans to purchase 2nd and 3rd properties.   Properties which were purchased as investments in the rush to cash-in on the soaring real estate market. These were properties purchased with the expectation that they could be re-sold for profit in months or at the most a few years - all this to be done before the ARM’s interest rate kicked in and the price skyrocketed. These are the individuals who threw the dice and took a gamble every bit as risky as any stock market investment … and lost.  These are the individuals, many of whom are now faced with paying 2 or 3 mortgages in this bad economy who stand to lose both their speculative investment and their primary home.  Many in the the middle class made the mistake.  They jumped on the bandwagon and now we’re paying the price.

Back to Currency

I talked earlier about how suppressing the dollar doesn’t make sense/work. Consider that since July the Dollar has turned around its downward march and rebounded forcefully. To illustrate this point, consider the gains made by the dollar against the following international currencies:

• July: 1.04 October: 1.44 - Australian dollars 28%
• July: .63 October: .73 - Euros 16%
• July: .50 October: .57 - British Pound 14%
• July: 1048 October: 1390 - South Korea Won 33%
• July: 79 October: 110 - Icelandic Krona 39%
• July: 1.49 October: 1.79 - Fijian Dollar 20%
• July: 10 October: 12 - Mexican Peso 20%
• July: 1.59 October: 2.36 - Brazilian Real 48%
• July: 1.01 October: 1.12 - Canadian Dollar 11%
• July: 516 October: 611 - Chilean Peso 18%
• July: 1924 October: 2281 - Colombian Peso 19%
• July: 149 October: 187 - Hungarian Florin 26%
• July: 1.31 October: 1.67 - New Zealand Dollar 27%
• July: 5.07 October: 6.12 - Norwegian Kroner 21%

*Credit goes to Cody Paris for pulling this data/doing the calculations.

So, the question begs - what’s the macro message we should take away from this?  In the modern global economy nothing is quite what it seams. For my part, I’ll be watching the international markets every bit as closely as I watch the markets here in the states.

As always, I value your thoughts and feedback! Please, keep in mind that these thoughts are a summary of my observations and nothing more.  I’m not an economist - only a curious mind trying to make sense of things.

Listen to this post:

Audio: Are virtual worlds the harbingers of the end of society?

When people discuss the future of online communities and virtual environments it’s the question that nags at the back of everyone’s mind.  Even among virtual world evangelists it’s a topic of concern, apprehension and uncertainty.  A concept and concern so powerful that mega hits like the Matrix have been based on it.

The question begs - are virtual worlds the harbingers of the end of society? Will, as most people fear the eventual march of technology result in environments so immersive, so powerful, and so socially disconnected that our species loses its ability and desire to interact, reproduce and perpetuate itself?  Will virtual worlds and their progeny result in the eventual death of civilization? Experience tells me that most people believe it will.

I disagree.

In fact, not only do I disagree, but I’m not worried in the least. The forward march of technology is an interesting dilemma.  Especially since, with each new invention things previously unimaginable become a reality opening the gateway to future inventions and technology so far beyond the scope of our current understanding that they are, by today’s standards, unfathomable. The side effect of this forward moving evolution is change.  Sometimes a change so fundamental, it re-shapes our very lives. Fire. The wheel. The written word.  Change can make the topic a very difficult one to explore, after all - change is scary or at the very least something that requires a transition period before it becomes comfortable. So, where is the fine line between what we’re afraid of because it’s new or different, and what we’re afraid of because it’s detrimental?

I believe the answer lies in our core nature as a species.  We are, fundamentally, social creatures.  We reach out, build communities, and seek out companionship.  We are not a-sexual and as such by our very biological makeup are hardwired to seek companionship.  Community is at the core of who we are, and our success as a species.  It powers our communities, which have enabled us to overcome great obstacles, eventually becoming the dominant form of life on earth.  It’s for that very reason that the thought of technology breaking down those social bonds is so alarming.  It’s also for that very reason that I’m not concerned. Humans - as a species - will always seek out other humans. In fact, the lengths we will go to are spectacular.  A point I am continually reminded of when I look at gamers behavior.

A few years ago when I was spending a lot of my time playing Everquest and other online games,,, I was constantly amazed at the lengths guild/group members would go to in order to meet each other in person.  It’s not uncommon for gaming guilds to hold meet-ups and while the lions share are more regionally oriented many are international in scope with members from all over the country (and world) flying in for small & medium sized face-to-face gatherings. There’s an important lesson here - even in one of the web’s most immersive environments people still reach out to each other.  Another example of the power of community presence is LAN parties where groups of 3 or more gather in one location and all play/chat/etc. for hours and in some cases days. At these events it’s not uncommon to have X people in a room silently focused on their screens for surprisingly long blocks of time without verbal interactions.  Despite their apparent lack of social interaction, they are using Skype-like technology to communicate with each other and others throughout the world, chatting constantly, and interacting in a rich world with their avatars.  So, why gather at all?  The comradship of being together.  The power and appeal of being in the presence of other humans and enjoying the face-to-face socialization that happens during downtime.  Again, these behaviors make it clear that as a species we thrive on, and hunger for, social interaction.  We are social creatures.

Confident in our social nature, I’m not concerned about the growing influence of technology because fundamentally we will always reach out to connect physically.  The dynamics may change, but the physical presence of someone, especially a romantic partner, is an experience that technology can’t duplicate.  In cases where it comes close it may temporarily satiate our needs, but ultimately even in these instances real world social interaction will always win out.  That’s why - to me - the fears about virtual world technology are a non-issue.

So, what happens if technology does move to the point where it can imitate and replace social interactions and the benefits of face-to-face interactions? That is the imagined matrix paradigm, a virtual reality so complete, real, and believable that you can’t tell the difference between it and the real world.  If, or rather when, technology evolves to the point where it is able to flawlessly imitate the real world, where does that leave us? Staunchly embedded and fiercely loyal to the world we know. It’s a scary thought, but realistically would that world be any less real, albeit different, than what we now classify as the “real world”?  Would it truly be a bad thing if it satiated all of our needs and fulfilled us every bit as completely as the “real world”? I don’t believe it would be bad.  In fact, at that point I believe it becomes every bit as real, valid and perhaps even essential as what we take for granted today.

So, are virtual worlds the harbingers of the end? If you believe that humans are fundamentally social animals and that we need that social interaction to survive, then your answer should be a confident no.  If, on the other hand, you do not believe that we are fundamentally social - what are you concerned about to begin with?

As always I value your feedback, thoughts and discussion.  Please take advantage of the comment feature below and share your thoughts!

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Audio Transcript: Arizona Turning Blue

With John McCain’s nomination as the official Republican nominee for President the assumption is that at least one state - Arizona - is guaranteed to vote for him. Conventional wisdom holds that Arizona is a red state and given our voting record, rightly so.  Arizona has voted Republican (as a state) for the last 20+ years.

However, the statistics paint a different picture.  I’d like to propose that it’s entirely possible that John McCain loses Arizona come this November 4th, especially if Barack Obama and the Democrats focus attention on the state.  Arizona has consistently been less GOP friendly than the general discourse suggests.  In fact I’d go so far as to argue, that a large part of the reason it’s still a predominantly Red state is gross misconception among Democrats and Independents. Most assume that Arizona is Red, their vote is pointless, and as a result they don’t bother to vote at all.  The catch is, voting registration numbers and recent voting behavior suggest something  altogether different.  For example, look at the re-election and support for Governor Janet Napolitano, a Democrat.  Also, consider conservative Republican J.D. Hayworth’s recent loss to Democrat Harry Mitchell.

According to the Arizona Secretary of State’s website September 2008 registered voter numbers are as follows:

Active

• Active Republicans - 1,061,591
• Active Democrats - 957,859
• Active Independents (Other) - 759,159
• Active Libertarians - 17,278
• Active Green Party - 3,467
• Total Active State Voting Population: 2,799,390

Inactive

• Inactive Independents (other) - 177,830
• Inactive Democrats - 151,777
• Inactive Republicans - 158,887
• Inactive Libertarians - 5,160
• Inactive Green - 1,326
• Total Inactive State Voting Population: 494,980

In looking at these figures what jumps out is that there are 1.6 Democrats & Independents (1,717,018) for every 1 Republican and Libertarian (1,078,869).  This is potentially deceptive as Libertarians and Independents typically are not loyal to either party. Polls from the 2006 election found that “The independent voters surveyed said they plan to support Democratic candidates over Republicans by roughly 2 to 1″ [WSJ] which is on-par with other information I’ve seen. Especially when one takes into account that a large portion of the more liberal youth demographic trends towards registering as Independents.  Also potentially significant is the disproportionately high number (177,000) of inactive independent voters in the state that may play a role in this election.

The Independent vote has historically been very friendly towards McCain, embracing his reputation as a Maverick. As a moderate, McCain enjoyed heavy support from Independent and Democrat voters in Arizona, which largely offset the mixed support he historically has had from his own party.

Fact: In the 2008 primary John McCain received the lowest percentage of support from his own state.  Obama won 65% of Illinois, Clinton won 57% of New York, Huckabee won 60% of Arkansas, Romney won 51% of Massachusetts, while McCain only took home 47% of the votes in the Arizona Republican Primary.  [Source Dems, Reps].

This information begs the questions: Will Independents and Libertarians support John McCain? A question that largely hinges on their perception of him. With the credibility of the Straight Talk Express brand imploding in September and his image as a Maverick reformer disintegrating, it’s entirely possible that his shift to the far right on policies, and the selection of Sarah Palin as running mate will cost him Arizona. Ironically, these voters are his core base and the people who know him best.

I encourage you all to do your research through non-partisan fact checking organizations.  I highly recommend www.factcheck.org and www.politifact.com.

Thanks for reading and, as always, I’d love to hear your thoughts - any additional information/research you have found, or of any additional non-partisan resources that might help voters make an educated decision.

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Blog Audio Transcript: A Powerful Visualization

There are few things more central to the essence of who we are than our perception of the world around us.  The way in which we relate defines both how we perceive the world and how we chart our course through it.  At an early age my dad shared a mental exercise with me.  Despite being young, and not really understanding the power of it at the time, it stuck with me and has been an incredible tool every since. It has given me insights into myself, my place in the world, religion, morality, and helps me keep things in perspective.  Don’t worry if it makes you uncomfortable, or you get lost while doing it the first few times.

Step 1: Find a quiet spot.  It can be a park, your room, or anywhere that won’t have any distractions for 2 or 3 minutes.

Step 2: Sit or stand in a comfortable position, close your eyes, relax your body and focus your thoughts on an ant. Visualize the ant in as much detail as you can, but make sure it fills your minds eye.

Step 3: Step your minds eye back slightly so you’re now visualizing the ant and the inside of the ant hill.  Your visualization should only include a small area - 2 to 3 inches around the ant. Mentally pause and let your mind explore the scope of what you’re already seeing.

Step 4: Take another step back, this time visualize the entire anthill and the foot or so around it. Don’t rush the process, make sure to try and visualize the scene as richly as possible.

Step 5: Take another step back, now visualize the area in the immediate vicinity of the ant hill. Is it lush jungle, barren desert, are there animals, what time of day is it?

Step 6: Expand your visualization to a mile or so.  What does the terrain look like.  How does the initial ant, and its fellows compare and affect the surrounding area?

Step 7: Step back to 10 square miles.  Are there cities?  What else can you visualize.  Take the time to explore the mental landscape and how everything relates to everything else.

Step 8: Visualize the continent with millions of anthills and hundreds of millions of people in their cities.

Step 9: Step back out beyond the atmosphere.  Up into the space between the Earth and the Moon. Consider the world, the cultures, the natural environment, and recall how the ant relates to it all.

Step 10: Visualize the moon with the earth behind it.  The moon’s surface.  Its gravitational pull creating the earth’s tides and its impact on each step you’ve visualized previously.

Step 11: Travel out across the solar system. Mentally stopping to visualize, explore and to look back.

Step 12: Move beyond the solar system and seat your minds eye in the Universe taking in our entire Galaxy.

Step 13: Move your eye further back into the Universe and expand your visualization to include as many Galaxies as you can visualize.

Step 14: This is where it gets really difficult and can be somewhat uncomfortable. Can you continue to expand your visualization? What comes next? If your answer is nothingness, then try and mentally explore the scope of that nothingness. As odd as it may sound, this step has actually made me dizzy.

Step 15: Reflect.

Each person’s experience will differ.  The way your mind works/relates to the world around you will effect how easy parts of the exercise are. I encourage you to consider not only how you relate to the world you’ve explored during the visualization, but also how the ant relates, and even how the earth relates.

Step 14 is one of the most difficult, but also one of the most rewarding.  When we go about our day-to-day lives we view the world from our perspective and relate to it through our perception of time.  As you push your mind out past the depths of space, you also will eventually discover something we almost never experience. The complete unknown.  Something so completely foreign to us that we can’t even visualize it.  It is, perhaps, the only time in your life you’ll face a question that is not only unanswerable but which is also unfathomable.

For me, this exercise has helped me understand the scope of my existence.  Instead of making me feel small and insignificant, it has given me the utmost confidence that every action I make alters the very fabric of the universe.  I may be nothing more than a grain of sand, but each grain of sand alters the entirety of the beach.  Each action I choose to make sends out ripples across the Universe and for that reason, it’s paramount that I chose the right actions and work to make a difference because even though that difference is beyond minuscule in the grand scheme of things my actions do effect the world. For me, life has become about creating positive ripples.  How will you choose to live your life?

I would love to hear your experiences with this exercise and your reflections.  If you have thoughts, are having trouble with the visualization or have a story/realization you would like to share, please post it in a comment.