Comments on: Will Arizona Leave McCain Seeing Blue This November?

By: Alex Berger

Alex Berger — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 21:57:38 +0000

1. There’s a big difference between a non-partisan organization set to lobby for a specific agenda and a non-partisan organization who’s specific charter is the non-partisan fact checking of political claims.

2. Look at the debate coverage etc. they’re just as hard on Obama as they are on McCain. The same goes for Politifact.com

3. Factcheck has been found credible enough for use by a number of major publications. One of their spokespeople was on NPR the other day, they’re mentioned and cited in most major news publications etc.

If you’ve found a better resource for non-partisan fact checking please share it. Worst case scenario you might have to actually spend some time researching the citations used in the fact-checking summaries which both sites typically document.

By: Jason Stewart

Jason Stewart — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 21:39:11 +0000

last I checked the NRA was listed as a nonpartisan group. Factcheck might be nonpartisan, but that doesn’t mean it’s balanced, or unbiased, much like the NRA. haven’t read much from politifact, I’ll have to check it out.

By: Alex Berger

Alex Berger — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 22:28:55 +0000

Key word: Non-partisan. Further, as far as political fact checking goes? The two listed are two of the best/most even handed available to the average voter.

By: Jason Stewart

Jason Stewart — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 22:19:05 +0000

you seriously think factcheck isn’t biased?

By: Alex Berger

Alex Berger — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 16:06:33 +0000

Linda! Excellent point.

Kyle – fantastic thoughts!

By: Linda

Linda — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 15:01:29 +0000

Very nice post, Alex.

Another thing to consider is that a growing number of Californians are moving to Arizona – specifically the Phoenix metropolitan area – thus increasing the “blueness” factor of the state.

By: Kyle

Kyle — Sat, 27 Sep 2008 03:28:01 +0000

Alex,

While I agree that this year Arizona could and probably will lean more towards the Democrats than in the past, I still think McCain will take the State. First, Napolitano doesn’t seem like a Democrat. On the national scale I believe that the Democratic Party has a PR problem, it’s something that the Republicans have exploited to their advantage and will continue to do so. At the state level I don’t believe their perception is as polarizing, and Napolitano has capitalized on that. Second, we have to remember that two years ago J.D. Hayworth was wrapped up in the Abramoff scandal and was kneecapped by the Arizona Republic. So I believe there are some extenuating circumstances that make these examples some what extraordinary and unreliable. As far as McCain having the lowest margin of victory from his home state, I again do no think this will stand in the general election. Romney drew the Mormon vote during the campaign and while it is an assumption we can probably count on those voters to side with McCain as opposed to Obama, and when we account for this his margin of victory goes up.

The Obama campaign would be smart to focus on Southern and Northern Arizona, they lean more to the left, and it is an in road to the state. However, in order to win the state the majority Maricopa County has to carried. I don’t think this election will see a change in color, but if the Democratic Party can build strong operations in the parts of the state that are more sympathetic to its cause then maybe in the next couple of election cycles we will see more parts of Maricopa County vote Democrat and a paradigm shift in the voting tendencies of the state. However, this is years out and would depend greatly on an influx of Liberals moving to the state and Hispanics siding with the Dems.

By: Katy Chapman

Katy Chapman — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 17:04:06 +0000

Very nice article, Alex! Thank you for sharing it with me.

By: Philippe Best

Philippe Best — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 14:41:26 +0000

Alex,
Nice job taking a look at raw numbers. It does get tricky, however, with those independent voters because, in AZ anyway, my hunch is they lean to the right. That being said, I feel like generally people feel at the mercy of history and statistics and could be freed from this by being shown the POSSIBILITY of a statewide political shift that then translates into reality. I feel like this is one of those situations where people need to be told in essence that things don’t have to be THIS way, that they can be different. Not having lived in AZ for 4 years now, I don’t know what kind of outreach is being done by Dems to draw in the Independent, Green, and Libertarian votes. I would hope a great deal is being done. These things can be sort of viral, so spread the word.

All in all, nice work.